- July 2018 will likely go down as one of the top five warmest Julys on record for many locations across the west. The only exception was the average to slightly cooler than average conditions in and around the Bay Area where continued strong coastal upwelling and cooler SSTs have predominated. Dry conditions persisted in the western US in July, fueling numerous fires in many states, and adding to long-term drought concerns.
- Continued warmer than average conditions are forecasted over the next 10 days to two weeks. While not as warm as what was experienced in July, conditions will likely remain warmer than average through the third week of August. The greatest likelihood of precipitation in the short-term is for Southern California, the desert southwest and into the Great Basin with increasing monsoon flow expected.
- The seasonal forecast continues to indicate a relatively warm and dry western US through late summer and early fall. There is some indication of drought development in the PNW, but I would not bet on this yet. Current year heat accumulation, and all analog years and forecasts continue to indicate that 2018 is likely to end up close to the average heat accumulation of the last five years across the majority of the western US.