Summary:
- A relatively mild October turned seasonal late in the month with temperatures ending up moderately warmer than average* for most in the west, especially in the desert southwest and the Rockies.
- In general, October was dry over the west, with the far PNW seeing fronts dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska bringing some rain late in the month. Inland regions in the Basin and Four Corners also received some rain during the month while most of California had 50% or less of normal rainfall.
- For the 2024 vintage, growing degree-day accumulations ended higher than average over most of the west, except along coastal zones and within a few mountain-valley areas.
- A reasonably active storm train continues out of the Gulf of Alaska bringing pretty typical November weather for many. Most of the action is pointed to the northern coastal and inland areas of Washington, dipping south into Oregon and Northern California. Off and on again rain for much of the west through the end of November, except southern California and the southwest where drier conditions are likely.
- The seasonal outlook continues to point to a mild to cool and wet November, followed by what looks like a stormy, cold, and wet December and January.
- The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is favoring La Niña conditions developing in September-November (60% chance) and is expecting it to persist through January to March 2025. However, the overall sentiment is that this La Niña will likely be a weak event with a short duration. With the PDO in a strong negative phase and a likely weak La Niña, I am leaning the odds more to average or below average temperatures and wetter with decent snowpack development, especially in the PNW.
