Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at April and forecasts conditions for May, June, and July.
Summary:
- April was warmer than average* over most of the West. However, frost occurred near mid-month for many valley locations growing winegrapes in the west and throughout eastern US wine regions.
- After a dry March, April saw a return of spring rain and even some snow in California and portions of the inland PNW. Drier than normal conditions remained in the southwest, most of the Plains, and in portions of the Rockies, Cascades, and western Washington.
- Drought conditions continue for many areas of the country, with the western US and the southeast seeing the most extreme and prolonged drought. The seasonal outlook calls for further development of drought in the west, while the southeast is likely to see drought conditions improve.
- A ridge is building across the Gulf of Alaska and the PNW while pushing a low pressure area south off of California. As the low slowly moves east, some rain for California over the next few days is likely while the PNW warms to above average temperatures.
- The May forecast for the West is pointing to mostly warm and dry, especially across the PNW.
- Heading into the first half of summer, the 90-day forecast is pointing to a high likelihood of a warmer and drier western US. Very warm ocean temperatures and a developing El Niño in the Tropics are likely to lead to both a warmer summer and an increase in the monsoon flow, which could increase the likelihood of thunderstorms over much of the western US during wildfire season.
*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.
View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.
