Summary:
- A mild April across the west with most regions seeing slightly warmer than average1 temperatures. Exceptions were a cooler than average month in north-central Oregon, southern California, and the southwest.
- Overall, a dry April for much of the western US, except for the central coast of California and Arizona which experienced a wetter than average month.
- End of April snow water equivalents (SWE) are running higher than normal for much of the central to southern basins across the west, while the northern basins in the PNW and Rockies ended the winter lower than average.
- A cool start to May for much of the west will likely slowly give way to a warmer second half of the month, ending with something close to normal for most areas. North, wet over the next few days; South dry.
- The overall May precipitation forecast is not very telling, with the vast majority of the west having equal chances of seeing above, normal, and below average amounts.
- The 90-day seasonal forecast is tilting the odds to a warmer than average first half of summer for the western US, except the southern portions of California and the southwest which is forecast to be near normal. As mentioned last month, I am still holding to what I have been seeing for months now, a little cooler than what is expected for May and early June, then ramping up to warmer than average from the middle of June through August. The forecast also continues to point to near average precipitation for most, to drier than average, especially in the PNW.
- El Niño persists for now but continues to wane, with a La Niña watch still in place for the fall. As such a warmer summer for much of the US is likely, along with a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic and Gulf.
