Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at February and forecasts conditions for March, April, and May.
Summary:
- The warmer than average* winter for the western US continued in February.
- February brought more normal precipitation to many regions, especially in California, portions of Oregon, and the Intermountain West. But many places across the western US remain very dry.
- Snowpacks remain below normal for most basins in the western US. California and portions of the northern Rockies added some snowpack, but warmer than average temperatures elevated the snow levels elsewhere and melted lower level amounts.
- After returning to a more active storm pattern in February, high pressure is currently building in over the west coast with drier and milder conditions south into California and the southwest. The PNW will see a few week storms ride over the ridge, with light rain and overcast conditions through mid-month.
- Warmer and drier than average conditions for most of the western US during the second half of March. The PNW could see some precipitation, but not likely very much. If the ridge builds as forecast, most storms will be guided north and east, then south into the heartland, where a very wet month is forecast.
- The 90 day seasonal forecast for March through May is not very clear for the PNW, with near normal conditions most likely. The signal is stronger across California and the southwest, with drier and warmer conditions very likely. Southern Oregon appears to have a better chance of near average to a warmer than average spring, but not likely much more than average precipitation from now until the end of the water year.
*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.
View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.
