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June 2026 Weather and Climate Summary Forecast

| Weather & Climate Forecasts |

Dr. Gregory V. Jones, Climate of Wine

Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at May and forecasts conditions for June, July, and August.

Summary:

  • A warmer than average* May for the vast majority of the western US.
  • May was also generally drier than average across the western US, especially in the southwest, the Great Basin, and parts of the Rockies. Isolated areas of wetter than average include south-central Oregon and north-central California, and northwestern Montana. Significantly wetter conditions were observed across much of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, indicating early-season monsoon flow (which is also forecast for the summer).
  • Drought concerns continue over much of the country. The western US appears to be headed to a record drought footprint as the summer warmth sets in, while the eastern US is likely to see some relief over the next three months.
  • Active storm track across the North Pacific over the next week or so with the potential for some precipitation in the PNW and possibly slightly cooler temperatures. But it will be warm and dry elsewhere in the West.
  • The forecast for the West during June is pointing to generally warm and dry, especially in the PNW.
  • The 90-day forecast for the middle of the summer continues to point to a high likelihood of a warmer and drier western US. The developing El Niño in the Tropics is getting a lot of buzz as it could develop into one of the stronger events on record by the end of 2026 and start of 2027. But during the summer, forecasts are pointing to a more active subtropical jet stream and a greater chance of monsoon flow coming into the western US. With conditions currently quite dry and likely to remain, the wildfire season in the western US could be quite active.

​*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.

View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.