Summary:
- Extreme heat events over the west and northern states brought June to average to substantially warmer than average, while the middle of the country to the southeast was cooler than average.
- Early June rains in the PNW helped some, but overall, June was dry over most of the west.
- Varying levels of drought now encompass over 98% of the west, with over 80% in severe to extreme drought. Additional areas in the PNW, northern Rockies, and northern Plains are likely to see drought development further as the summer progresses, while June brought an indication of possible summer monsoon activity in the southeast.
- A seasonal to warm start to July is forecast to continue throughout the month. Seasonally dry conditions are also forecast for the month over most of the west. Hints at monsoon flow in the southwest stay in the forecast for July.
- The Pacific Ocean remains in an ENSO-neutral state in the tropics and the North Pacific remains in the negative phase of the PDO. The result is likely less tropical influence on our summer weather. Coastal zone SSTs from the Gulf of Alaska to Baja have warmed and are projected to warm through the summer. The result is likely a lessening of the coastal zone marine layer influences along the coast. The overall summer forecast continues to tilt the odds to warmer than average temperatures and remaining seasonally dry for the western US.
