Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at January and forecasts conditions for February, March, and April.
Summary:
- January continued the warmer than average* winter across the western US, with the northern Rockies seeing the warmest conditions during the month. Cooler conditions occurred in the western valleys of Oregon due mostly to persistent fog.
- After some precipitation in the first week of January, the month turned very dry with most regions seeing no precipitation over the last 25 days of the month.
- Most of the water year to date precipitation has come as rain, with snowpacks running substantially below normal for most areas. Fortunately, reservoirs are mostly full … for now. The ‘snow drought’ we are currently in is quite concerning, with fewer days to potentially make up the deficits and the seasonal forecast trending warmer than average.
- The prolonged ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather in the west for the past couple of months is giving way to a couple of systems from now till the 10th, bringing moisture and colder temperatures to the western US (more likely the further north one goes, and less likely south).
- The second half of February is likely to stay warmer and drier than average, leaving most of the western US more likely to see a warmer and drier month.
- The seasonal forecast for now through April is still holding to general La Niña and negative PDO influences, which would favor a near average to cooler and wetter second half of winter across the PNW and northern Rockies, and cool to near average and dry southward into California and the southwest.
*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.
View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.
