Summary:
- Much of the west experienced a cooler than average November, although portions of the PNW saw slightly warmer than average temperatures for the month.
- November brought substantial precipitation to portions of northern California and into the PNW, while southern California and the southeast remained very dry.
- November precipitation lowered drought conditions for northern California, Oregon, and Washington, but dry conditions continued in the northern Rockies and southwest. Seasonal outlooks point to continued improvement in the north but ongoing dry conditions in the southwest.
- Mix of ridging bringing dry but cool conditions along with off and on frontal passages and rain chances through mid-month. Santa Ana winds will likely kick up in southern California over the next 10 days.
- The overall December forecast favors a near average to warmer than average month over the western US. Precipitation amounts appear headed to an overall wet month for the PNW and near average to drier than average in California and southwest.
- La Niña conditions have been slow to develop with probabilities dropping to below 60% by the end of the year. This La Niña continues to be seen as a likely weak, short duration event. But a strong negative phase of the PDO and a weak La Niña continue to tilt the odds to a cooler and wetter winter from northern California into the PNW and cool to near average and dry into southern California and the southwest.
