Summary:
- November turned mild for the western US with most areas seeing warmer than average temperatures for the month.
- A dry November was experienced throughout most of the western US. Most areas were between 20 to 90% of average in November, with small areas of the inland PNW, inland southern California, and the Rockies seeing 110-220% of normal precipitation.
- Drought conditions have improved slightly over the western US with the PNW and southwest continuing to show the driest conditions.
- A very wet start to December in the north, drier south. The overall December forecast favors a near average to warmer than average month over the western US. The storm track dips a little south mid-month, favoring a wetter period for California and an overall wet month for the PNW.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical Pacific are now warm enough to categorize it as a strong El Niño. Modeling indicates a very high likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting during the rest of 2023 and first quarter of 2024. The North Pacific (cold) remains out of phase with the Tropical Pacific (warm) which could end up making this El Niño anything but typical. But forecasts and the media think otherwise. We shall see …
