Summary:
- July was warmer than average for the west with elevated humidity; cool to average for most in the east.
- Monsoon flow brought welcomed rain to the southwest and Great Basin, but July remained dry elsewhere.
- Drought continues to encompass most of the west, although monsoon rains have lowered levels in the southwest. Short- and long-term indicators point to drought conditions continuing into fall for most of the western US, with the only exceptions being some additional monsoon flow in the southwest and thunderstorms from the crest of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada mountains eastward.
- August is forecast to start with seasonal conditions in the PNW to warm south and east into California and the Great Basin. An early month frontal system might settle the dust in the PNW, but otherwise seasonally dry conditions are forecast for the month over most of the west. Continued monsoon flow in the southwest and eastside thunderstorms up into the PNW remain in play for the month.
- ENSO-neutral continues in the tropics while the North Pacific remains in the negative phase of the PDO, tilting the odds to a warm end of the vintage. Coastal zone SSTs along the west coast have flipped back to cool but are projected to warm slightly through the summer. Short-term this means continued coastal zone marine layer influences waning into late summer. The overall summer forecast continues to tilt the odds to warmer than average temperatures and remaining seasonally dry for the western US.
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