Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at March and forecasts conditions for April, May, and June
Summary:
- March was substantially warmer than average* across the western US and most of the country. Early bud break for most regions, followed by frost risk for some later in the month and/or stalled growth for others.
- A strong ridge of high pressure also brought an extremely dry month to most of the west, except for the northern fringe of the ridge in Washington across to Montana, where atmospheric rivers kept the region wetter than average. The ridge also influenced the Kona storms in Hawaii, leading to major flooding across the state.
- The April 1 mountain basin snowpack numbers are dismal across the West, with totals generally below 25% of normal and many below 5%. Fortunately, the overall amount of rain was closer to average, but snow melt will be minimal this year for most basins, especially in the Colorado River drainage area.
- Cooler and wetter to start the month. Frost risk is elevated over the next 10 days or so, especially in the western and eastern valleys in the PNW.
- Mid to late month, another ridge of high pressure is likely to build over the North Pacific, with the forecast pointing to the month of April likely being warmer and drier over the western US.
- The April through June seasonal forecast is leaning toward the western US seeing warmer and drier conditions. Drought conditions in the western US are likely to persist or develop over the next few months, leading to a long fire season across the West. The forecast is bolstered by the rapid transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral to possibly El Niño later this summer or early fall.
*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.
View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.
