Summary:
- Cooler than average March over the majority of the western US. The extreme cold in the mid-section of the county in February flipped to a very warm March across the eastern half of the country.
- March ended drier than average over the bulk of the western US, continuing a relatively dry winter.
- No reprieve from the drought concerns with over 60% of the west in severe to exceptional drought. Some areas of the PNW have continued to get better, but longer-term concerns linger for most of the west, and additional areas in Texas and the southern to northern Plains are likely to see drought development further.
- A relatively mild start to April will give way to relatively a cool month for most of the west. A few systems may bring precipitation to the PNW, but doubtful for much of anything south into California and the southwest. Continuing from last month, for April the east is forecast to be warm while the west is likely to stay cool.
- The cool, dry conditions will elevate frost risk for what looks like the entire month of April for much of the west coast, especially inland valleys.
- La Niña conditions are weakening in the Tropical Pacific. The Gulf of Alaska and the coastal Pacific SSTs have turned colder and are likely to have a strong play on the cool April forecast. If prolonged we are likely to see a slow start to the summer, if fleeting then a rapid warm-up into May/June likely.
