Dr. Greg Jones recently published an updated weather and climate summary and forecast. This report looks back at October and forecasts conditions for November, December, and January.
Summary:
- The government shutdown is starting to affect the availability of some non-critical forms of geophysical data, including weather and climate, sea surface temperatures, etc. For this report, attempts have been made to bridge missing data, but gaps will likely continue until the shutdown is resolved.
- Generally cooler than average* temperatures were seen over the majority of the western US in October. Warmer than average temperatures were experienced from the Rockies eastward.
- October brought welcomed precipitation to much of the west, with moderate amounts across nearly every state.
- Overall, November is forecast to end up near average to warmer than normal for most regions of the West. The month is forecast to bring above average precipitation likely across the PNW into northern California, while most other areas have equal chances or likely below normal precipitation for the month.
- The seasonal outlook for the first half of winter has much of the southern and central portions of the country likely seeing above average temperatures. For the PNW across the northern tier of states, the forecast is much less certain and is likely hinging on the strength and longevity of the currently developing La Niña. The situation is similar for the first half of winter precipitation, where the typical La Niña pattern of a wetter PNW and near average to drier than average California and Southwest is forecasted. Northern California is usually the spatial tipping point for ENSO effects, and it appears that forecasters are hedging bets on its effect this year as well.
*Note that all references to normal or averages in this report are to the 1991-2020 climate normal for each weather/climate parameter unless stated otherwise. See this website for more information on climate normals.
View the report (PDF) on the Abacela website.
