Summary:
- A near average to relatively warm October for most of the western US.
- A dry October over most of the west, especially California into the southwest. Wetter than average conditions were seen in scattered portions of the PNW, southern Idaho, northern Rockies, and Plains.
- Not much change in the overall drought conditions across the US or the West. Moderate drought continues in the PNW and southwest, while California, the Basin, and portions of the Rockies remain out of drought for now.
- A coolish and dry end to October has given way to more seasonal temperatures and increased precipitation chances in early November.
- November appears headed to an above average precipitation month in the PNW and closer to average for California and the rest of the west. Temperatures are likely to stay mild to relatively warm over the majority of the west.
- Continued strengthening in the current El Niño is driving the 90-day forecast with a tilt toward a warmer and drier PNW and slightly cooler and potentially wetter southern tier of states. The North Pacific (cold) remains out of phase with the Tropical Pacific (warm) which could end up making this El Niño anything but typical. Currently, I see a reasonably consistent mild signal for November, which is followed by a cold signal in December, with a transition to seasonal temperatures in January. The one consistent concern is a dry winter for portions of the west, especially the PNW.
