Summary:
- Warm June northwards and much cooler than average south and across the Great Basin and Rockies. Cooler ocean temperatures off California have tamped down temperatures over much of the west. Growing degree days ahead of normal in the northwest and below average in most of California.
• Some precipitation along the south-central coast of California along with mountain and eastside thunderstorms in June brought wetter than average conditions. However, the PNW, northern California, and the southwest were substantially drier than average.
• Drought conditions continue at some of the lowest levels in many years, especially in California and the southwest. However, a dry spring pushed the PNW further into drought.
• A warm start to July will give way to more seasonal temperatures before warming up again mid-month. Some onshore flow with fog and drizzle in the usual places, along with possible precipitation in the extreme NW otherwise seasonally dry elsewhere.
• The forecast for July is pointing to the PNW likely to see above average temperatures for July, while the rest of the west is forecast to have equal chances to see slightly above to slightly below average temperatures. The July precipitation outlook is pointing to a seasonally dry month for most of the western US. The forecast for the rest of the summer has most of the US forecast to see warmer than average temperatures. The precipitation forecast through the remainder of the summer has most of the west near average, or seasonally dry.
• El Niño is now with us and projected to continue through the end of the year while the PDO remains in a strong negative phase. Right now, the PDO is helping to tamp down temperatures in California and the Basin, while El Niño is expected to push global temperatures to a top five warmest year on record.
