Summary:
- July was warmer than average1 over much of the western US, especially in the southwest. Growing degree-days
continue to accumulate ahead of normal in the northwest and near to below average in most of California. - Little precipitation over the western US in July, except for east side thunderstorms, some coastal zone drizzle, and light amounts in north-northwest Washington.
- Drought conditions in the west have a similar footprint as in June, however the PNW and the Four Corners region are forecast to see drought develop further this summer and potentially into the fall.
- Seasonal to warmer than average start to August for most of the west. Temperatures are forecast to warm up again mid-month. In the short-term, east side thunderstorms are the best chance for precipitation across the west.
- The August forecast has the western US likely to see a warmer than average month, especially in the PNW. Closer to average temperatures are likely in the central coastal zones of California.
- Precipitation in August is forecast to remain seasonally dry for the west, especially in the southwest where the monsoon season is in doubt.
- As harvest season rapidly approaches, the 90 day forecast is tilting the odds to warm and dry over the majority of the western US. However, I need to remind everyone that early to mid-September brings some of the first hints at fall circulation out of the Gulf of Alaska and forecasting beyond that time has more uncertainty, especially on the precipitation side. In addition, with El Niño conditions likely to strengthen and continue through the end of the year and some shifts in the PDO likely as well, seasonal forecasting would be expected to be a little more in flux. Next month’s report should provide some more insights into the harvest season weather
